When Is A Platform A Platform?

Sometimes, I think I must read all the same sites as Pete Caputa (though I am sure he reads lots more than me). Yesterday, he made and interesting post about the Long Tail and where the value will fall:

However, the aggregators, unless they are bought by AGILEAMY, will not have enough clout to be bigger than the transaction platform players, Amazon, Ebay, Google, AzoogleAds, etc, the ones that pay affiliates. So, the transaction platform players/the affiliate program owners, stand to make the most cash from the Long Tail. As more and more content is created for free, and aggregated so that the sum is valuable, advertising inventory becomes a lot cheaper.

Source: pc4media, "Where's the Money to Be Made from the Long Tail?"

I have to agree entirely, well almost. Pete cites another post I came across that I wanted to comment on. it was written by David Hornick. Here's a relevant excerpt:

... I have come to the conclusion that there are essentially two general classes of technology the will benefit economically from the Long Tail -- aggregators and filterers. And while both aggregators and filterers rely upon the increasing volume and diversity of content to assure their value in the ecosystem, that growth of content will not have a material impact upon the value of any one piece of content floating somewhere in the Tail. The value will all inure to the benefit of the aggregators and filterers.

Source: , VentureBlog, "Where's The Money In The Long Tail?"

I guess my only point of contention with the argument that only the "platforms" can win is what really separates a vertical from a platform exactly. In some cases, it seems that verticals have grown and grown, to the point that the platform emerges from its existence. As companies get attracted to more and more opportunities to reach the long tail audiences, they'll naturally seek out those networks with the greatest reach, right? Sounds like the long tail all over ;)

I can see lots of circumstances where there's enough abstraction in any one vertical that expansion is both natural and desired. I have a hard time believing that the big 3 or 5 or whatever it is now are where the plays are - naturally, there's going to be another Google, right? Can shear size launch one from a vertical to a horizontal?

I use this analogy frequently, so I'll repeat it here. Consumers don't care nearly as much about horizontals (infrastructure) as they do about verticals (applications). Why should they? I don't care how my electricity (infrastructure) works, so long as I can plug in my computer (application). Businesses fall into two categories (super generalization) - platforms and applications/services. We tend to call something niche when it's focused on a vertical (another super generalization).

I guess I am trying to come up with the characteristics of a vertical that can actually make the transition. That's, of course, a much longer conversation that I'll save for another day when the sky isn't falling!